Pitch Execution Overview
Where pitches go. What happens there. What might deserve a closer look.
Quality Strikes vs. Damage Zone
Where the Pitches Landed
Benchmark Comparison
Pitcher Profiles
| Pitcher | Pitches | QS% | DZ% | DZ HH-BIP | DZ Direct Runs |
|---|
Pitch Forensics
Filter by pitcher, pitch type, handedness, and count. All cards and charts use the same sample.
Quality Strikes, Damage Zone, and Outside Zone
Pitch Location Distribution
Pitch Location
Select a pitch to inspect its recorded outcome.
Count-Specific Audit
Custom count classification: 2-2 = pitcher advantage; 3-2 = even.
| Count | Class | Pitches | DZ% | Runs/100 |
|---|
Outing Review
Review individual games, recent outings, and recurring exposure patterns. An outing is grouped by Statcast game ID.
Outing Location Distribution
DZ% by Outing
Red dashed line = pitcher's full-season DZ% baseline. Small outings can produce volatile percentages; the baseline includes the displayed outings.
Findings Worth Reviewing
Outing History
| Date | Game ID | Pitches | DZ | QS | HH-BIP | Direct Runs |
|---|
From Evidence to Development
Set a coach-selected objective, compare with the season baseline, and monitor future outings and tradeoffs.
Objectives are saved only in this browser. They are not shared with coaches or synchronized across devices.
Measure → Identify → Investigate → Train → Track
Record location exposure and observed outcomes.
Find recurring patterns and high-cost locations.
Examine pitch type, count, handedness, and outings.
Coach chooses a focus and weighs tradeoffs.
Review future outings, walks, and overall damage.
Research backlog: Saved Reports & Insights (personal dashboards, browser bookmarks first, secure accounts later); Location vs. Stuff; attribute interactions (location × movement, velocity × spin); expected run value; pitcher-specific development response; minor-league progression. These studies are not completed.
How often are we putting baseballs where hitters can do serious damage, and what does it cost us when we do?
PitchXL investigates dangerous-location exposure, its observed consequences, and whether the evidence can help coaches identify what deserves attention.
Too many pitches enter locations where hitters can do serious damage. Mistakes are inevitable; their frequency and consequences should be measurable. PitchXL asks how often pitchers expose themselves to dangerous locations, what that exposure costs, and whether focused training can reduce it.
Damage Zone (DZ): Statcast Zone 5, the central cell of the strike zone. This is an operational test definition, not a claim that danger is confined to a rectangle. A flared, data-derived zone remains a future research model, not the definition used for these results.
DZ Exposure: DZ pitches / eligible tracked pitches. DZ Damage: hard-hit balls in play (exit velocity ≥95 mph) per 100 DZ pitches. DZ Direct Runs (DZDR): observed runs scored on the pitch/play, with the raw count and rate per 100 DZ pitches. Raw counts appear before rates.
No inferred intent: An intentional middle-middle pitch and an accidental miss both count as DZ exposure. The current report does not determine which was an execution mistake.
Quality Strikes (QS): Statcast strike-zone cells 1–4 and 6–9, excluding the center cell (Zone 5). QS% is Quality Strikes divided by all eligible location-valid pitches. This is a location category, not proof of intent or overall pitch quality.
Outside-zone categories: Competitive and Noncompetitive Out-of-Zone are provisional proximity estimates, not validated measures of target execution.
Modern development measures stuff exceptionally well. PitchXL investigates whether location exposure deserves a more explicit, recurring development workflow: Measure → Identify → Investigate → Train → Track. It is a hypothesis that targeted practice can meaningfully reduce high-cost misses, not a causal result established by this dataset.
A coach might review repeated four-seamers leaking into Zone 5 on two-strike counts, choose a lane-execution focus, then compare the next three or five outings against the pitcher's baseline. The coach—not the software—decides which intervention is appropriate.
Actual Direct Runs are descriptive consequences, not preventable runs. A future expected run-value model could estimate the impact of different exposure profiles, with context and uncertainty; only then could PitchXL investigate a defensible runs-to-wins translation.
Engineering principle: Don't expect zero failures. Measure their frequency, evaluate their consequences, prioritize the costly patterns, and test whether they improve.
Research Methodology & LimitationsDetailed definitions, source data, outside-zone estimates, and interpretation safeguards
Core metrics
| Measure | Operational definition |
|---|---|
| DZ% | Statcast Zone 5 pitches / eligible pitches |
| ZONE% | Statcast zones 1–9 / eligible pitches |
| QS% | Statcast zones 1–4 and 6–9 / eligible pitches. A location category, not a guarantee of pitch quality. |
| Hard-Hit BIP | Ball put into play with Statcast exit velocity ≥95 mph. Hard-hit fouls excluded. |
| Direct Runs | Max(0, post-batter score − pre-batter score) on the pitch. Observed runs, not causal or expected value. |
| Per 100 | Count of hard-hit BIP or Direct Runs / pitches in the named category × 100. |
| Count advantage | Pitcher if strikes > balls or count is 2-2; Hitter if balls > strikes except 3-2; Even otherwise, including 3-2. |
| Eligible pitches | Regular-season pitches with valid plate coordinates, valid batter strike-zone bounds, and a recognized Statcast zone code. |
Exploratory Outside-Zone Classification
Statcast records actual pitch location but does not reliably identify the catcher’s intended target. The four-part distribution separates Quality Strikes (zones 1–4 and 6–9), Damage Zone (zone 5), and out-of-zone pitches (zones 11–14).
For pitches outside the zone, the Competitive Out-of-Zone (Estimated) category uses an exploratory geometric proximity test: within approximately 0.25 feet horizontally and 0.15 normalized strike-zone heights vertically of the modeled strike-zone boundary, using an elliptical distance rule. Other outside-zone pitches are Noncompetitive Out-of-Zone (Estimated). Horizontal strike-zone half-width is approximated as 0.83 feet; vertical location is normalized using each batter’s reported strike-zone top and bottom.
Important: These are provisional proximity categories, not verified execution grades, swing-inducement scores, or evidence of pitcher intent. The boundary thresholds are unvalidated, and source Statcast zone codes can differ from the modeled geometric boundaries. Results can change if the thresholds change. Do not use these labels for training prescriptions yet.
Interpretation safeguards
Middle-middle pitches have different expected outcomes depending on pitch type, movement, velocity, batter, count, and game situation. Raw Direct Runs are influenced by runners on base and other context. Comparing rates alone does not establish causality, preventable runs, or an optimal target.
Before any player-development recommendations, we need out-of-sample validation, appropriate context adjustment, minimum samples, and an evaluation of tradeoffs such as walks and misses outside the zone.
Source: MLB Statcast data retrieved via Baseball Savant. Statcast CSV documentation. All logos omitted. The underlying data and its redistribution rights must be reviewed before public hosting.
PitchXL is an independent baseball research project exploring the relationship between pitch execution and outcomes. Findings are exploratory and intended to support professional baseball judgment. PitchXL is not affiliated with or endorsed by MLB or any club.
Exit Interview: Did PitchXL Tell You Something Useful?
The central test is whether the tool changes understanding or informs a real decision—not whether the charts look impressive.
This prototype does not submit responses automatically. Please copy and send your responses to the PitchXL researcher.